OpenAI Trillion-Dollar IPO: Musk's Defeat Clears the Final Hurdle
May 18, Oakland Federal Courthouse, California.
The jury took less than two hours to reach a unanimous decision: Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI was dismissed because the statute of limitations had expired. The nearly three-week trial, dubbed the “AI trial of the century” by the media, ended in a technical defeat.
The dramatic twist? Just four days after the defeat, OpenAI secretly filed its IPO prospectus draft with the SEC. Musk’s loss became the biggest catalyst for OpenAI’s trillion-dollar valuation IPO.
The Rashomon in the Courtroom
The core dispute seemed simple: Had OpenAI betrayed its non-profit mission established in 2015, becoming a “closed-source profit machine”?
But the details revealed during the trial were far more complex.
Altman’s counterattack:
- Testified that Musk never opposed establishing a for-profit arm, and in fact demanded “absolute majority equity”
- More explosively, Altman claimed Musk once planned to pass control “to my children”
- This testimony directly undermined Musk’s public image of “developing AI for the safety of all humanity”
Brockman’s diary:
- OpenAI co-founder publicly shared his private diary, assessing Musk: “He knows rockets and electric cars, but he didn’t understand AI in the past, and I don’t think he understands it now.”
Sutskever’s testimony:
- Former chief scientist confirmed that when Musk first encountered GPT-1, he was extremely dismissive, stating that “ordinary netizens could produce better results”
Neither side truly won. Musk lost the lawsuit and his image was damaged. Altman won the case but was accused by multiple witnesses of being “two-faced” and “lying” about AI safety review issues.
Defeat Means IPO: The Timeline Is Too Convenient
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 18 | Musk’s lawsuit dismissed |
| May 22 | OpenAI secretly files IPO prospectus draft with SEC |
| June 9 | Caixin reports confirm OpenAI’s secret filing |
| September (expected) | OpenAI plans to complete IPO |
This timeline is difficult to dismiss as mere coincidence.
After Musk’s defeat, OpenAI’s listing obstacles were almost entirely cleared overnight. The vice president of IPO research firm IPOX stated that resolving the lawsuit as a “major obstacle” gave OpenAI more confidence to accelerate its capital market push.
However, OpenAI’s internal stance was not unanimous. CFO Sarah Friar privately advocated delaying the IPO until 2027, citing three reasons: the company was not fully prepared to meet public market standards; the projected $600+ billion in computing infrastructure spending over the next five years posed enormous financial risks; expected losses of $14 billion in 2025 and approximately $25 billion in 2026.
Altman’s remarks at an all-hands meeting are noteworthy: “Filing an IPO application and being truly ready to go public are two different things.”
SpaceX Sprints, OpenAI Chases
The IPO race between Musk and Altman reached fever pitch in May.
- SpaceX: Filed IPO documents in May 2026, planned listing on June 12, targeting the largest IPO in history
- OpenAI: Accelerated after the defeat, targeting a September listing with an expected valuation of $800 billion to $1 trillion
The two CEOs are competing not just for listing speed, but for the symbolic significance of being “the first tech mega-IPO.” In May, Musk also announced the merger of xAI into SpaceX, creating a business spanning space, Starlink, and AI.
But Altman’s situation is more delicate: if SpaceX lists first, how much significance remains in OpenAI being the “first AI stock”?
Core Assessment
- This lawsuit was essentially a lose-lose: Musk lost the case; Altman won but his image was damaged
- Defeat actually accelerated the IPO: Capital market logic dictates that after legal risks are removed, the winner must stride forward
- OpenAI’s financial reality is severe: For every dollar earned, $2.25 is spent; positive cash flow may not be achieved until 2030
- Valuation is supported by narrative, not profit: ChatGPT has 900 million weekly active users and $25 billion annualized revenue, but losses are expanding simultaneously
- The listing window is fiercely competitive: SpaceX and OpenAI going public simultaneously will test US stock market liquidity
OpenAI’s listing is not the finish line, but the starting point of a new phase in the cash-burning war. Behind the trillion-dollar valuation lies tens of billions in annual computing costs, increasingly fierce model competition, and a business model that has yet to be proven.
Sources
- Caixin, 2026-06-02
- Caixin, 2026-06-09
- TMTPost, 2026-05-20
- Sina Technology, 2026-05-19
- Wall Street News, 2026-05-21